LME Three-Month Copper Hits Record High, SHFE Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,196/mt, dipped to $11,177/mt early in the session, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, touching a high of $11,334/mt, subsequently fluctuated downward and finally closed at $11,232.5/mt, up 0.51%, with trading volume reaching 27,400 lots and open interest reaching 334,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract opened at 89,410 yuan/mt, touched a high of 89,920 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 89,010 yuan/mt, subsequently fluctuated upward and finally closed at 89,380 yuan/mt, up 0.62%, with trading volume reaching 73,900 lots and open interest reaching 229,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On December 1, SolGold stated it had rejected a preliminary conditional acquisition proposal from Jiangxi Copper Corporation Group Limited of China.

(2) On December 1, LME three-month copper recently broke through $11,200/mt, reaching a record high, with strong market sentiment. Tight supply, mine production cuts, and growing global energy transition demand are key factors driving copper prices higher. Additionally, the recent weakening of the US dollar provided additional support for copper prices.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On December 1, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 220 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 105 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 88,890-89,660 yuan/mt. In the morning, the SHFE copper 2512 contract surged to 89,500 yuan/mt early in the session, then began to give up gains, but remained basically stable above 89,000 yuan/mt during the morning trading session. The SHFE copper inter-month price spread is currently in contango of 80-40 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to over 1,200 yuan/mt. Looking ahead today, spot market trading sentiment depends on whether futures pull back. If prices remain above 89,000 yuan/mt, new orders are expected to be significantly limited, with downstream purchasing sentiment staying low.

(2) Guangdong: On December 1, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 50-130 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 90 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40-0 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 20 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 89,340 yuan/mt, up 2,010 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 89,230 yuan/mt, up 2,010 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream buyers were cautious and refrained from purchasing due to the sharp rise in copper prices, leading to a significant decline in spot premiums.

(3) Imported copper: On December 1, warrant prices were $25-37/mt, QP December, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $41-53/mt, QP December, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at -$6/mt to $8/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on December 1, the futures closing price was 89,290 yuan/mt, up 1,920 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 105 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 1,200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 80,000-80,200 yuan/mt, up 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,182 yuan/mt, up 638 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,150 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, stimulated by news of planned production cuts by domestic smelters, copper prices rose rapidly. Secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that, amid short-term abnormal fluctuations in copper prices, they would suspend procurement or offer prices below market rates to avoid risks from a pullback in copper prices.

(5) Inventory: On November 28, LME copper cathode inventories were flat at 159,425 mt. On December 1, SHFE warrant inventories fell 3,749 mt to 31,495 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US November ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, below expectations and marking the ninth consecutive month below the 50 mark, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. The US dollar index closed lower, supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, overall supply remained tight, with limited arrivals of imported copper and domestic supplies. Demand side, the sharp rise in copper prices significantly dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. Inventory side, as of Monday, December 1, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased 14,500 mt WoW to 159,000 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to have limited upside today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]